California's Proposition 19 [9], the tax and regulate cannabis marijuana legalization initiative, continues to lead in the latest SurveyUSA poll [10] of likely voters, but with a smaller lead than two previous SurveyUSA polls. The latest poll has the support for the initiative at 47%, with 43% opposed and 10% undecided.
The initiative, sponsored by Oakland medical marijuana entrepreneur Richard Lee, would legalize the possession of up to an ounce of marijuana by people 21 or over. It would also allow adults to grow up to 25 square feet of pot and possess the resulting harvest. It would give cities and counties the local option of taxing and regulating marijuana sales.
According to the poll, Prop 19 has majority support among men (54%), but not women (40%); people under 50 (51%), but not those over 50 (43%); Democrats (51%), but not independents (49%) or Republicans (39%); and whites (52%), but not blacks (40%), Asians (39%), or Hispanics (38%).
With now less than two months until election day, it seems more clear than ever that the Prop 19 campaign is going to come down to the wire. Turnout will be key, especially among young voters. The 18-to-34 age group supports Prop 19 by 59% to 33%. The only demographic in the poll that exceeded that was liberals, with 61%.