Monitoring
the
Future
Survey
Released
12/24/98
War against Iraq and impeachment proceedings against President Clinton meant that the latest teen drug use statistics released last week fell beneath the national radar screen. But U.S. Drug Czar General Barry McCaffrey and Secretary of Health and Human Services Donna Shalala were on hand December 18 to announce the results from this year's Monitoring the Future Survey, which tabulates the answers from a cross section of 50,000 8th, 10th, and 12th graders each spring in an effort to determine trends in adolescent drug use. The 1998 study from the University of Michigan shows that use of some drugs, including marijuana, tobacco, alcohol, amphetamines, and inhalants has fallen slightly since for the second year in a row. The most significant decline was seen with lifetime marijuana use by 10th graders, which fell 2.7 percent to 39.6 percent in 1997. Lifetime marijuana use by high school seniors fell only 0.5 percent to 49.1 percent. The use of some other drugs like cocaine and heroin has leveled off. Shalala, McCaffrey, and the study's director, Lloyd Johnston, agreed that the improvements were a modest but hopeful sign that teen drug use, which had increased slowly but steadily in the early 90's, was beginning a general downward trend. All three say the decline in drug use is linked to an increase in the perceived harmfulness of drugs by teens, for which they credit increased efforts by the government to, in the words of Secretary Shalala, "convince our young people that drug use is illegal, dangerous and wrong." General McCaffrey agreed, saying the current drug war strategy of prevention, treatment, and enforcement is working. Currently, about two thirds of the 17 billion dollar Federal drug war budget is spent on enforcement. But other experts say long-term trends in drug use tell a different story. Lynn Zimmer, Professor of Sociology at Queens College and co-author of the book "Marijuana Myths, Marijuana Facts: A Review of the Scientific Evidence," told the Week Online, "If we look at the results from this study since it began in 1975, we see a general pattern of rising and falling rates of the use of different drugs over time. It's not clear that anti-drug campaigns have any direct effect on these patterns; in fact, it's obvious that teen drug use trends rise and fall independently of the government and the media." Sandee Burbank, director of Mothers Against Misuse and Abuse (MAMA), agrees. "Anybody who has been watching these trends knows that drug use comes and goes naturally according to the popularity of a given drug among a given age group," she said. Burbank was critical of the "just say no" approach to drug education favored by the government, because it doesn't give teens the information they need to stay safe if they, or their friends, do experiment with drugs. "What we have to focus more on is getting good educational materials out there to help people make informed decisions about all drugs, legal, illegal, and over the counter. And we have to teach people about the extremely punitive laws that target young people, laws that would take their drivers licenses away if they're caught with any amount of illegal drugs, laws that would deny them scholastic advantages or student loans if they have been caught with an illegal substance." One of the most consistent figures in the Monitoring the Future Survey has been the perceived availability of drugs by high school seniors. Since 1975, from 80 to 90 percent of 12th graders have ranked marijuana as "easy to get" or "very easy to get." Burbank says these numbers show that years of increased budgets for enforcement, which resulted in more than 640,000 arrests on marijuana-related charges alone in 1997, have failed to keep drugs away from schools and kids. She said, "Putting parents in jail, and all the other draconian methods in place, do not seem to have reduced the availability of these drugs." Figures from the 1998 Monitoring the Future Survey are available on the web at http://www.isr.umich.edu/src/mtf/. Mothers Against Misuse and Abuse is on the web at http://www.mamas.org. For information on ordering Marijuana Myths, Marijuana Facts, visit http://www.marijuanafacts.org. Read Adam J. Smith's editorial, "Spin, You Win," on the subject of drug use statistics, from the August 1998 Week Online at http://www.drcnet.org/wol/056.html#editorial.
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